July 1

Invest 4E will most likely become a tropial strom


July 2nd

In our tropical kitchen this morning we have Invest 2E that is currently SW of the cape and moving slowly NW.  It is forecast to briefly increase in strength to tropical storm status later today then slowly dissipate over the next 72 hours.  The name will be Agatha, not Alex is I previously reported.  (Damn Tequila)
There is another low starting to spin up west of Manzanillo this morning.  It has been designated 94E.  It is forecast to become better organized today as it slowly drifts to the west-northwest. The National Hurricane Center is giving this a good chance of becoming our next named storm.  The TY model shows this at hurricane strength on the 4th of July following in the path of Agatha which continues to move slowly toward Hawaii.
Tropical waves:  There are three in transit in the Atlantic this morning and one emerging from Central America this morning.


July 3rd

Tropical Storm Agatha
Agatha has likely reached its peak intensity, so little change in
strength is expected today. By tonight and especially on Monday, the
cyclone will be encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear in excess of 20 kt, and will also be moving over sea-surface
temperatures less than 26C and into a significantly drier air mass.
These negative factors should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant
low by 48-72 hours, and dissipate by day 4. This official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory and closely follows
the intensity consensus model IVCN.


INIT 03/0900Z 17.0N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.7N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 18.4N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 18.9N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 19.1N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 19.4N 134.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED


[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]July 5 plutoed to a tropical depression