Monday, September 5, 2016
He is currently over the Socorro Islands with 36-47 Knot winds along with 20 ft seas running at 11 seconds. He is forecast to arrive at the cape early tomorrow morning as a tropical storm.
Last night the Mexican government issued a Hurricane Warning for the cape region including La Paz. They also issued a tropical storm watch for the east coast of the Baja peninsula from San Evaristo to Loreto and along the west coast of the peninsula to around San Juanico Scopion Bay.
This is what the latest forecast are showing for tropical storm Newton. Newton, as a tropical storm, going right down the center of the peninsula reaching Concepcion Bay Tuesday, Wednesday the LA bay area and Thursday crossing the sea heading for Baja Keno Nuevo where it will dissipates over land. Winds are forecast to reach the 60-70 ranges. That’s nudging hurricane strength. Cruisers take appropriate action. Secure loose items on the deck, check ground tackle, find a protected anchorage etc.
It would appear that the ranchers will finally be getting that much needed rain. Hopefully it can happen without the flooding we normally get from any Baja storm. We’ll see.
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
In our tropical kitchen this morning this report came from Josh Morgerman from his website iCyclone this morning.
“3 am Tuesday (Cabo San Lucas, BCS, Mexico): Hello from the eye of Hurricane NEWTON. Whistling, destructive winds hammered the city for about an hour—with some very large flying debris—but about 15 minutes ago the winds died down, and a calm is sweeping over the city (indicated on the map by a star). The pressure is hovering around 984 mb. We're in the eye.”
The following is from the National Hurricane Center. Since Newton's wind field is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower weakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a hurricane when it makes a second landfall along Guaymas in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models show Newton losing no strength at all before the next landfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico, Newton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains.
The models are showing hurricane strength from the cape to Concepcion Bay where it crosses over to Guaymas still as a hurricane.
On the outside from the cape to around San Juanico Scopion Bay.
The current models are showing the northern sea including the bay of LA area out of the zone of influence. That being said, this storm has yet to read any of these forecast and pretty much has mine of its own. Those cruisers in the northern sea, I’d still prepare some weather and keep a wary eye on the sky.