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Saturday, October 25, 2014

 

 

At bit to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a couple hundred miles off shore there is a “wanna-be” low.  This image is showing numerous showers and thunderbumpers in the vicinity of the low. 


The models are not showing any tropical development for at least the next 5 days but after that as the system moves north we could have our next tropical STORM. We’ll see?


Meanwhile this low is giving cause to a Tehuantepecker in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure in the western Caribbean and this low on the Pacific side will have winds whistling though the Chivela pass today and tomorrow with GALE force velositys.  GALE Warnings have been posted for today and tomorrow.


This morning there are three Tropical Waves transiting the Atlantic with the most western one moving through the Leawards this morning. 

 

 

A custom Tropical Wave Chart is published below.

 

Will our next named storm be a

or a

We'll see? Let's hope the season is over.


Next in line for a tropical name is Vance, Winny (could be the Pooh), Xavier, Yolanda and finally Zeke.


 

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2014 Tropical Storms / Hurricanes

Click on a storm name for details and graphics

Amanda

Cat 4

5/22-5/29

 

Boris

Cat 1

6/3-6/4

 

Christina

Cat 4

6/10-6/16

 

Douglas

TS

6/30-7/5

 

Elida

TS

6/30-7/3

 

Fausto

TS

7/8-7/10

 

Genevieve

TS

7/12-7/29

 

Hernan

Cat 1

7/26-7/30

 

Iselle

Cat 4

8/1-8/8

 

Julio

Cat 2

8/4-8/8

 

Karina

Cat 1

8-14-8/16

 

Lowell

TS

8/19-8/22

 

Marie

Cat 4

8/22-8/28

 

Norbert

Cat 3

9/2-9/8

 

Odile

Cat 4

9/11-9/20

 

Polo

TS

9/18-9/20

 

Rachel

Cat 1

9/25-9/29

 

Simon

Cat 4

10/02-10/8

 

Trudy

TS

10/18-10/19

  Vance   Winnie   Xavier   Yolanda   Zeke  

Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

 

 

Custom overlay

NOAA Updates this chart at aproximately 14:45Z (8:45MT)

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This is sort of nurdy stuff. Most cruisers just want to know, when, where, how big, and where can I hide if a hurricane or tropical storm is in the hood.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures greater than 26.5 °C (80 °F) through a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft) are generally favorable for the formation and sustaining of tropical cyclones. Generally the higher the SST, the stronger the storm and greater chance of genesis. However, there are many factors affecting the strength of such storms. For Baja and the Mexican Riviera the SSTs become favorable about August.

Remotely sensed SST can be used to detect the surface temperature signature due to hurricanes. In general, an SST cooling is observed after the passing of a hurricane primarily as the result of mixed layer deepening and surface heat losses.