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Wednesday, October 1, 2014

In our Tropical Kitchen this morning we have invest 90 Echo a couple hundred miles SW of Manzanillo this morning  Models continue to show it becoming depressed tomorrow and travel north up the west coast of Mexico bringing drenching rains to the coastal communities.  The models are a bit sketchy but it looks like this will probably develop into a tropical STORM and is unlikely to become a hurricane. The forecast track remains fairly consistent with the STORM skirting to the west of the cape if it makes it that far. 


At this time there is nothing else showing up on the long range models and Rachel is history with the last advisory posted yesterday.


Tropical Waves:  Two are in transit in the mid Atlantic and one is moving through the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.

 

A forecast track for this new storm is posted below.

 



Next in line for a tropical name is Simon, then Trudy, Vance, Winny (could be the Pooh), Xavier, Yolanda and finally Zeke.



 

A custom Tropical Wave Chart is published below.

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2014 Tropical Storms / Hurricanes

Click on a storm name for details and graphics

Amanda

Cat 4

5/22-5/29

 

Boris

Cat 1

6/3-6/4

 

Christina

Cat 4

6/10-6/16

 

Douglas

TS

6/30-7/5

 

Elida

TS

6/30-7/3

 

Fausto

TS

7/8-7/10

 

Genevieve

TS

7/12-7/29

 

Hernan

Cat 1

7/26-7/30

 

Iselle

Cat 4

8/1-8/8

 

Julio

Cat 2

8/4-8/8

 

Karina

Cat 1

8-14-8/16

 

Lowell

TS

8/19-8/22

 

Marie

Cat 4

8/22-8/28

 

Norbert

Cat 3

9/2-9/8

 

Odile

Cat 4

9/11-9/20

 

Polo

TS

9/18-9/20

 

Rachel

Cat 1

9/25-9/29

  Simon   Trudy   Vance   Winnie   Xavier   Yolanda   Zeke  

Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

 

 

 

Custom overlay

NOAA Updates this chart at aproximately 14:45Z (8:45MT)

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This is sort of nurdy stuff. Most cruisers just want to know, when, where, how big, and where can I hide if a hurricane or tropical storm is in the hood.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures greater than 26.5 °C (80 °F) through a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft) are generally favorable for the formation and sustaining of tropical cyclones. Generally the higher the SST, the stronger the storm and greater chance of genesis. However, there are many factors affecting the strength of such storms. For Baja and the Mexican Riviera the SSTs become favorable about August.

Remotely sensed SST can be used to detect the surface temperature signature due to hurricanes. In general, an SST cooling is observed after the passing of a hurricane primarily as the result of mixed layer deepening and surface heat losses.