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Wednesday, July 30, 2014


In our Tropical Kitchen this morning we have the remnants of Himicane Hernan well west of the cape as a Tropical Depression this morning.
A tropical wave has caught up with an area of low pressure around 950 miles SSW of the cape that the National Hurricane Center is giving a 70% chance of developing into a tropical STORM within the next 5 days.
The two long range models that I look at are not showing this development however they do show a low that is around 1500 miles SSW of the cape becoming a STORM. 
I’m putting my pesos on the National Hurricane Center.

As far as hurricanes in the month of July it was been a very mild month with 4 tropical storms and two insignificant hurricanes. Next month traditionally is when we have our more serious storms.  We’ll see?

Tropical Waves:  one just left the African coast and are two more in the mid Atlantic, one is just passing through the Gulf of Tehuantepec and one has just caught up with a low about a 1000 miles SSW of the cape. This is the one forecast for development.






A custom Tropical Wave Chart is published below.

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2014 Tropical Storms / Hurricanes

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Cat 4




Cat 1




Cat 4




















Cat 1


Iselle   Julio   Karina   Lowell   Maria   Norbert   Odile   Polo  
Richael   Simon   Trudy   Vance   Winnie   Xavier   Yolanda   Zeke  

Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

Animated GIF EPAC

Animated GIF EPAC



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NOAA Updates this chart at aproximately 14:45Z (8:45MT)

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This is sort of nurdy stuff. Most cruisers just want to know, when, where, how big, and where can I hide if a hurricane or tropical storm is in the hood.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures greater than 26.5 °C (80 °F) through a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft) are generally favorable for the formation and sustaining of tropical cyclones. Generally the higher the SST, the stronger the storm and greater chance of genesis. However, there are many factors affecting the strength of such storms. For Baja and the Mexican Riviera the SSTs become favorable about August.

Remotely sensed SST can be used to detect the surface temperature signature due to hurricanes. In general, an SST cooling is observed after the passing of a hurricane primarily as the result of mixed layer deepening and surface heat losses.