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Thursday, July 24, 2014

In Our Tropical Kitchen this morning there are a couple of “Wanna-be’s” well out into the Eastern Pacific basin almost into the central Pacific. They may or may not develop into a tropical STORM before they leave our hood, either way it does not matter as they will not be affecting the interests in Mexico or Baja.


Back closer to the mainland it looks like we could have a STORM building several hundred miles SW of the cape and West of Acapulco.  It should probably become organized late in the weekend, probably Monday and the long range forecast has it heading due west for its lifespan. 


Tropical Waves:  There is only one in transit in the mid Atlantic this morning.  One would appear be lost in the jungles of Central America.  It could emerge though.  In the Eastern Pacific basin there a four Tropical Waves moving west pretty much following the ITCZ/Monsoon trough.  One has caught up with a low out about 1200 miles SW of the cape.  It is invest 91E and they are still giving it a 50% chance of tropical development.

 

 


 

 

A custom Tropical Wave Chart is published below.

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2014 Tropical Storms / Hurricanes

Click on a storm name for details and graphics

Amanda

Cat 4

5/22-5/29

 

Boris

Cat 1

6/3-6/4

 

Christina

Cat 4

6/10-6/16

 

Douglas

TS

6/30-7/5

 

Elida

TS

6/30-7/3

 

Fausto

TS

7/8-7/10

  Genevieve   Hernan  
Iselle   Julio   Karina   Lowell   Maria   Norbert   Odile   Polo  
Richael   Simon   Trudy   Vance   Winnie   Xavier   Yolanda   Zeke  

Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

Animated GIF EPAC

Animated GIF EPAC

 

 

Custom overlay

NOAA Updates this chart at aproximately 14:45Z (8:45MT)

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This is sort of nurdy stuff. Most cruisers just want to know, when, where, how big, and where can I hide if a hurricane or tropical storm is in the hood.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures greater than 26.5 °C (80 °F) through a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft) are generally favorable for the formation and sustaining of tropical cyclones. Generally the higher the SST, the stronger the storm and greater chance of genesis. However, there are many factors affecting the strength of such storms. For Baja and the Mexican Riviera the SSTs become favorable about August.

Remotely sensed SST can be used to detect the surface temperature signature due to hurricanes. In general, an SST cooling is observed after the passing of a hurricane primarily as the result of mixed layer deepening and surface heat losses.