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Sunday, September 21, 2014

In our Tropical Kitchen this morning we have weakening TROPICAL STORM Polo.  He has done a “Crazy Ivan” and is now heading SW.  He is forecast to continue to weaken for the next 36 hours or so and become a Tropical Depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow if not sooner.  Polo is currently 81 miles SW of the cape and the government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for Baja Sur.


On the back burner of our Tropical Kitchen this morning there is a small area of disturbed weather located a couple of hundred miles SW of Guatemala invest 99E.  The long range forecasts are saying 99 Echo will creep up to along the west coast of Mexico and around next Sunday and be our next tropical storm.

 

    

 

A custom Tropical Wave Chart is published below.

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2014 Tropical Storms / Hurricanes

Click on a storm name for details and graphics

Amanda

Cat 4

5/22-5/29

 

Boris

Cat 1

6/3-6/4

 

Christina

Cat 4

6/10-6/16

 

Douglas

TS

6/30-7/5

 

Elida

TS

6/30-7/3

 

Fausto

TS

7/8-7/10

 

Genevieve

TS

7/12-7/29

 

Hernan

Cat 1

7/26-7/30

 

Iselle

Cat 4

8/1-8/8

 

Julio

Cat 2

8/4-8/8

 

Karina

Cat 1

8-14-

 

Lowell

TS

8/19

 

Marie

Cat 4

8/22-8/28

 

Norbert

Cat 3

9/2-

 

Odile

Cat 4

9/11-9/20

 

Polo

TS

9/18

 
Rachael   Simon   Trudy   Vance   Winnie   Xavier   Yolanda   Zeke  

Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

 

 

 

 

 

Custom overlay

NOAA Updates this chart at aproximately 14:45Z (8:45MT)

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This is sort of nurdy stuff. Most cruisers just want to know, when, where, how big, and where can I hide if a hurricane or tropical storm is in the hood.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures greater than 26.5 °C (80 °F) through a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft) are generally favorable for the formation and sustaining of tropical cyclones. Generally the higher the SST, the stronger the storm and greater chance of genesis. However, there are many factors affecting the strength of such storms. For Baja and the Mexican Riviera the SSTs become favorable about August.

Remotely sensed SST can be used to detect the surface temperature signature due to hurricanes. In general, an SST cooling is observed after the passing of a hurricane primarily as the result of mixed layer deepening and surface heat losses.