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In our Tropical Kitchen this morning

 

Saturday, August 4, 2018

In our Tropical Kitchen this morning.  I looks like it is going to be busy next several days in the Eastern Pacific basin.  So starting the brother Hector.  He is closer to Hawaii than Baja and has now been upgraded to a Major storm, a Category 3 hurricane.
Next: Most likely tomorrow the National Hurricane Center will name the storm that will be spinning up west of Manzanillo.  Her name will be Ileana.  She is being forecast to slowly parallel the coast moving NNW Monday and by Tuesday be west of Cabo Corrienties.  By Wednesday around 3-4 hundred miles SW of the cape.  Early forecast for the cape are for cloudiness, possibly some rain and winds less than 20 as it passes well SW of the cape and by Thursday she’ll be well on her way to Hawaii. The FORECAST shows no danger to land.

          On the back burner an area of disturbed weather west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is getting the attention of the National Hurricane Center.  They are giving this a 90% chance of spinning up to a tropical storm.  Both the European and the TY model show this wannabe being gobbled up by Ileana before it has a chance for further development. 

Also on the back burner the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical
Analysis Forecast is showing a tropical wave just emerging from around Guatemala this morning.  There is a lot to thunderbumper activity all along the coast from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to Panama.  They are saying that there is a 30% chance this wave will hook up with a lonely low as it moves slowly west and spin up into something tropical. We’ll see?  

 

 

 

2018 Tropical Storms

Click on an underlined storm for details

 

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Aletta

6/9-6/12

Cat 1 

  

Bud

6/9-6/16

Cat 4 

  

 

Carlotta

6/16-6/19

TS

 

  

Daniel 

6-25-

6/28

TS

 

  

Emilia

6/28- 7/1

Cat 3

 

  
Favio
07/1-07/5

TS

 


  

Gilma 

7/26-7/28

TS

  

Hector

07/01-

Cat 3 

  

Ileana

08/05-

 

  

John 

  
Kristy
 

Lane 

  

Mariam 

  

Norman 

  

Olivia 

  

Paul 

  

Rosa 

  

Sergio 

  

Tara 

  

Vincente 

   Willa   Xavier   Yolanda  

Zeke
 
 

 

 

 

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2014 2015 2016 2017
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Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

 

 

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What is a Tropical wave and where do they come from?
Normally a tropical wave starts off as a sand storm in the Sahara Desert. Especially in the summer months there is a significant temperature gradient between the hot desert and the cooler waters along the Gulf of Guinea Coast.  So this hot, dust and sand filled wind starts moving west and developing into a trough of low. The wave, now bow shaped, is now being transported by the African Eastern Jet which moves east west across the Atlantic. 
A new tropical wave departs western North Africa about every 2-4 days between April and November, with about 60-65 waves per year, on average.
In the Atlantic 85% of all their major hurricanes have their origins traceable to these African waves and about 60% of all tropical storm and cat 1-2 hurricanes are spawned by these waves. 
Those that make it across the Atlantic and the Caribbean without tropical development (a tropical storm or hurricane) normally cross Central America and end up in the Eastern Pacific basin where they looking for a low to stimulate in the waters warmer than 80 degrees.

Shown below is the daily SST or Sea Surface Temperature chart. Storms like to be in waters around 26.2 celsius or around 80 degrees ferenheight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In our tropical kitchen this morning that low that is west of Zihuatanejo, parked on the ITCZ, Monsoon Trough, has now been designated 93 Echo.  Not much has changed in the forecast with only a minimal chance of developing into anything topical.

          Off in the Atlantic there are 3 tropical waves in transit with one just entering the jungles of Central America this morning.