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Friday, October 31, 2014 5:10 AM

         In our Tropical Kitchen this a our “Wanna-be” has spun up to a tropical storm and Vance, our 20th named STORM of the season, is around 400 miles west of Acapulco and will continue to move in a Northwesterly direction over the weekend and on Monday spin up to hurricane status.
Then if he follows the models he will turn back to the east and head toward the mainland and make landfall somewhere between Mazatlan and Cabo Corrienties around mid week. 

The big question is:  With what strength?  There are some guesses ranging from a category 1 hurricane to a Tropical Depression making landfall.  The only thing we do know is that it will most likely be a category one hurricane south of the cape early next week. 


The bloggers in the cape region are saying “Perhaps “just a few showers” around the cape, but I don’t trust them.  This is still hurricane season and if we have learned anything this year, these storms do not pay much attention to our forecasts and have surprised us more than once.  


Tropical Waves:  There is only one Tropical Wave moving through the western Caribbean this morning and none in the Atlantic.

 


A custom Tropical Wave Chart is published below.

 

Will our next named storm be a

or a

We'll see? Let's hope the season is over.


Next in line for a tropical name is Vance, Winny (could be the Pooh), Xavier, Yolanda and finally Zeke.


 

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2014 Tropical Storms / Hurricanes

Click on a storm name for details and graphics

Amanda

Cat 4

5/22-5/29

 

Boris

Cat 1

6/3-6/4

 

Christina

Cat 4

6/10-6/16

 

Douglas

TS

6/30-7/5

 

Elida

TS

6/30-7/3

 

Fausto

TS

7/8-7/10

 

Genevieve

TS

7/12-7/29

 

Hernan

Cat 1

7/26-7/30

 

Iselle

Cat 4

8/1-8/8

 

Julio

Cat 2

8/4-8/8

 

Karina

Cat 1

8-14-8/16

 

Lowell

TS

8/19-8/22

 

Marie

Cat 4

8/22-8/28

 

Norbert

Cat 3

9/2-9/8

 

Odile

Cat 4

9/11-9/20

 

Polo

TS

9/18-9/20

 

Rachel

Cat 1

9/25-9/29

 

Simon

Cat 4

10/02-10/8

 

Trudy

TS

10/18-10/19

 

Vance

TS

10/31-

  Winnie   Xavier   Yolanda   Zeke  

Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from National Hurricane center Miami florida

 

 

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NOAA Updates this chart at aproximately 14:45Z (8:45MT)

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This is sort of nurdy stuff. Most cruisers just want to know, when, where, how big, and where can I hide if a hurricane or tropical storm is in the hood.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Ocean temperatures greater than 26.5 °C (80 °F) through a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft) are generally favorable for the formation and sustaining of tropical cyclones. Generally the higher the SST, the stronger the storm and greater chance of genesis. However, there are many factors affecting the strength of such storms. For Baja and the Mexican Riviera the SSTs become favorable about August.

Remotely sensed SST can be used to detect the surface temperature signature due to hurricanes. In general, an SST cooling is observed after the passing of a hurricane primarily as the result of mixed layer deepening and surface heat losses.